Interest rates unlikely to change and Sabrina Carpenter album sparks debate: Morning Rundown

Experts say the attacks on Iran are unlikely to lead to a regime change. The Federal Reserve will decide whether to change interest rates or keep them the same. And pop star Sabrina Carpenter’s new album cover sparks scrutiny and debate.

Here’s what to know today.

Israeli assault could fuel power struggles in the Iranian regime

President Donald Trump is considering options including a possible U.S. strike on Iran, multiple current and former administration officials said after he met yesterday with his national security team in the White House Situation Room to discuss the conflict between Israel and Iran. Trump also called on Iran to surrender unconditionally and appeared to show solidarity with Israel in posts on social media/ “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” one read, referring to the U.S. and Israel.

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Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country’s assault could trigger the collapse of the Iranian regime and open the door to a popular uprising. But scholars who study Iran, as well as former U.S. and Israeli officials, say that scenario is unlikely.

There are a few factors:

→ First, Iranian opponents of the regime have mixed reactions to the Israeli strikes. Given the country’s bitter experience with foreign meddling, distrust of outside powers is pervasive. Several days into the conflict, “we still see no sign of a popular uprising against the government,” one expert said. Another noted, “Iranians are very well understood to resent their government… but they are also fiercely nationalistic.” 

→ While a popular uprising is unlikely, “it is possible that Iran witnesses an elite coup,” an associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House said. The Israeli assault has exposed widespread vulnerabilities in Iran’s security and military establishment, which could fuel power struggles and possible defections. A coup from within the regime might produce an even more authoritarian result, experts said.

Regardless, the Iranian government is struggling to cope with the attacks. Even if Israel’s onslaught does not topple the regime, it could inflict permanent damage.

Read the full story here.

More coverage of the Israel-Iran conflict:

• Israel said it struck uranium enrichment sites in Iran early Wednesday, and Iran plunged into a near-total internet blackout the day before. Follow our live blog for updates.

• Iranians are desperate to flee Tehran amid Israeli bombardments, but with roads and highways jammed, some are unsure if they’ll be able to make it out.

• An emerging coalition that includes some of Trump’s most fervent supporters and progressive Democrats is raising alarm about the possibility of the U.S. taking an active role in the conflict.

• The action in the Middle East and Trump’s early departure from the G7 summit in Canada suggest that global crises are piling up in ways that are impacting other parts of his agenda.

Federal Reserve likely to keep interest rates the same

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting today as it continues to assess the impact of Trump’s tariffs and focus on clamping down on inflation. If so, the announcement likely won’t sit well with Trump, who has called for lower rates and asserted there is no inflation. But retail spending is down, and the president’s on-again, off-again tariffs rollout has left businesses and consumers in limbo.

The Fed is also keeping an eye on ongoing signs that the job market is slowing down. Last week, filings for unemployment insurance climbed to just short of 2 million, the most since November 2021, and hiring rates remain at lows not seen in more than a decade. Read the full story here.

NYC mayoral candidate released after arrest at immigration court

New York City comptroller and mayoral candidate Brad Lander was released hours after his arrest at an immigration court yesterday.

Lander — who was at the federal courthouse with his wife to serve as advocates for defendants in immigration court — was “taken by masked agents” and detained by ICE after “escorting a defendant” out of court, Lander’s press secretary said. The Department of Homeland Security said they arrested Lander for “assaulting law enforcement and impeding a federal officer.” But Lander said after his release that he did not assault law enforcement and criticized the Trump administration. “We are not going to let Donald Trump wreck the rule of law, to deny people due process, and to turn our country into something that doesn’t meet its obligation under international law,” he said.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said after Lander’s release that any charges against Lander were dropped “to my knowledge” and he “walks out of there a free man.” Read the full story here.

More politics news:

• The pace of political violence has accelerated so quickly that a widening group of 2028 contenders will have experienced it in some form.

• Trump reopened arrests of immigrant workers at hotels, restaurants and agricultural businesses, backtracking on comments suggesting he wouldn’t target people in those industries.

• The Senate passed a landmark cryptocurrency bill that would establish the first regulatory framework for issuers of stablecoins, sending the legislation to the House.

• Trump plans to sign an executive order that allows TikTok to keep running in the U.S., extending the deadline for its owner to find a non-Chinese buyer.

• Supreme Court justices’ financial disclosure reports for 2024 show Ketanji Brown Jackson earned more than $2 million from the publisher of her memoir, while Neil Gorsuch reported a $250,000 advance for a book he co-authored.

Read All About It

• A review of RFK Jr.’s picks to serve on the vaccine advisory panel that makes recommendations to the CDC found that many members lack specific expertise in vaccine science or policy.

• The Florida Panthers won their second straight Stanley Cup after a 5-1 win against the Edmonton Oilers in Game 6.

• Seven California men were charged and accused of stealing roughly $100 million in gold, diamonds, rubies and more in what federal prosecutors called the largest jewelry heist in U.S. history.

• The baby of a brain-dead pregnant woman who was being kept alive by ventilators under Georgia’s abortion law was delivered, her family said.

• An actor and screenwriter has accused media mogul Tyler Perry of repeatedly making unwanted advances and seeking to cover up alleged sexual assault with an offer to develop a TV show.

• Anne Burrell, a Food Network star and “Worst Cooks in America” host, has died at the age of 55.

Staff Pick: Sabrina Carpenter flirts with controversy (again)

Sabrina Carpenter’s new single “Manchild” is a hit, debuting at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. But unlike the song, the cover photo for her upcoming album, “Man’s Best Friend” is getting mixed reviews.

Online discussions about the cover, which shows Carpenter on all fours while someone just out of frame pulls her hair like a leash, have dominated platforms like Reddit, TikTok, X and Instagram ever since its reveal. Some call it a harmless satire, and others assert the image is regressive for women — even bordering on glorifying domestic violence. I wanted to explore not only why the album cover has struck such a nerve, and if female artists could toy with concepts like the male gaze without reinforcing traditional gender roles. — Kalhan Rosenblatt, internet culture reporter

NBC Select: Online Shopping, Simplified

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