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He swept into Number 10 on a tidal wave of brown-nosing by Labour MPs, who saw him as their best chance of clinging onto their seats at the next election. The attention quickly went to his head. All it took was 24,000 voters in the Makerfield by-election to make him feel like the next messiah. At some point, reality was going to punch him in the face. It’s taken just four days and here’s the surprising bit. Burnham himself is doing most of the punching.
Burnham likes to be liked. And you know what? He is likeable. About as likeable as a politician is ever going to be. Sadly, people’s strengths are often their greatest vulnerabilities. All Burnham wants to do is model his latest T-shirt, flicker those famous eyelashes, and deliver voter-friendly speeches about how he’s going to boost spending and cut taxes, both at the same time. There’s only one way a prime minister can do that. By chucking the money around.
And that’s exactly what he’s been doing, like Mr Big swanning about with a roll of banknotes. He started the week by talking about increasing the tax-free personal allowance. Then pledged to axe the 5% VAT charge on our electricity bills, cut the bus fare cap from £3 to £2, and save pubs with a 20% cut to business rates. But every time, he’s run into exactly the same problem. That problem has a name. Rachel Reeves. And Burnham will be cursing it today.
Like every Labour chancellor before her, Reeves has spent all the money. Traditionally, Labour would leave the Conservatives to clean up the mess, while they screamed “austerity” from the sidelines. That was the playbook after Labour’s Gordon Brown almost bankrupted us.
Burnham can’t follow this routine, because he’s the one who’s inherited the mess. It’ll be his job to scoop it up, while the left screams austerity at him. And it’s already becoming shockingly clear that he doesn’t understand the scale of the task. Or doesn’t want to. Because voters won’t like what’s required. And then they won’t find Burnham so likeable either.
The U-turns have already started. He floated the idea of hiking the personal allowance, then quickly backtracked. That will cost £3.7billion a year, money he simply doesn’t have. He should devote less time to picking his next T-shirt and more to thinking through his policy pledges.
The lower bus fare cap could cost the Exchequer £500million. Temporarily axing VAT on electricity bills another £850million, and the pub business rates cut a further £100million. That’s £1.4billion spent. In just four days. Imagine how many billions Burnham could blow in a whole month.
Keir Starmer loyalist Darren Jones quickly mocked plans to fund the electricity VAT cut by scrapping the planned digital ID scheme. That pledge wasn’t funded either. The Treasury is now scratching around for savings to fund Burnham’s largesse, such as targeting vape shops. It’s desperate stuff.
Labour blew the bank under Denis Healey, Gordon Brown and now Rachel Reeves. Burnham would happily blow it too, but Reeves got there first. And before you say it, yes, the profligate Tories handed Reeves a dire legacy. New leader Kemi Badenoch has a tough job rebuilding their fiscal credibility too.
To repeat: there is no money left. Until Burnham wakes up to what that means, he’ll keep punching himself, and the rest of us, right in the face.
